Kevin T. Kelly

Professor and Director of the Center for Formal Epistemology
Department of Philosophy
Carnegie Mellon University
Baker Hall 135K
412 268 8567
kk3n(at)andrew.cmu.edu


Research Interests

I am interested mainly in the connection between scientific method and finding the truth.  Whereas most philosophers see the uncertainty of inductive inference as an argument for skepticism that must be defeated, I am motivated by an insight commonplace in theoretical computer science---that a given procedure is justified by the demonstrable, negative fact that no other method could do better. In the context of the problem of induction, the fact that no possible method could find the truth with an a priori guarantee against fallibility that justifies reversals of opinion as experience increases.  This alternative viewpoint has led to new results in a number of areas:
  • Ockham's razor and realism (project page)
  • The philosophy of induction
  • The lottery paradox and the logic of acceptance
  • Computationally bounded scientific rationality
  • Analysis of epistemic regresses
  • The learning power of belief revision
  • Relativism and convergent realism
  • Causal inference
  • Formal learning theory
I also have side interests in:
  • Philosophy of religion
  • Eastern philosophy
  • Kant

Selected Publications

  1. (with Hanti Lin) "Qualitative Reasoning that Tracks Probabilistic Reasoning", forthcoming, Journal of Philosophical Logic.
  2. (with Hanti Lin) "A Geo-logical Solution to the Lottery Paradox, with Applications to Nonmonotonic Logic", forthcoming in a special Synthese issue dedicated to Henry Kyburg.
  3. (with Conor Mayo-Wilson) ,  "Causal Conclusions that Flip Repeatedly and their Justification", Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Peter Grunwald and Peter Spirtes, eds. 2010: 277-286.
  4. (with Conor Mayo-Wilson)  "Ockham Efficiency Theorem for Random Empirical Methods", forthcoming, Journal of Philosophical Logic.
  5. "Simplicity, Truth, and Probability", in Handbook for the Philosophy of Statistics, Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and Malcolm Forster eds., Dordrecht: Elsevier. 2010.
  6. (with Conor Mayo-Wilson) "Review of Reliable Reasoning: Induction and Statistical Learning theory" by Gilbert Harman and Sanjeev Kulkarni, http://ndpr.nd.edu/board.cfm, 2008.
  7. "Ockham’s Razor, Truth, and Information", in Handbook of the Philosophy of Information, J. van Behthem and P. Adriaans, Dordrecht: Elsevier 2008.
  8. Kevin T. Kelly (2008b) “Five Answers”, in Epistemology: 5 Questions, V. Hendricks and D. Pritchard, eds., Copenhagen: Automatic Press.
  9. "Ockham’s Razor, Empirical Complexity, and Truth-finding Efficiency", Theoretical Computer Science, 383: 270-289, 2007.
  10. "Simplicity, Truth, and the Unending Game of Science", in Infinite Games: Foundations of the Formal Sciences V.  S. Bold, B. Loewe, T. Raesch, J. van Benthem, eds.  Roskilde: College Press 2007 pp. 223-270.
  11. "How Simplicity Helps You Find the Truth Without Pointing at it",in Philosophy of Mathematics and Induction, V. Harazinov, M. Friend, and N. Goethe, Dordrecht: Springer, 2007.
  12. "How to Do Things with an Infinite Regress",in Philosophy of Mathematics and Induction, V. Harazinov, M. Friend, and N. Goethe, Dordrecht: Springer, 2007.
  13. "Justification as Truth-finding Efficiency: How Ockham's Razor Works", Minds and Machines 14: 2004, pp. 485-505.
  14. "Uncomputability: The Problem of Induction Internalized," Theoretical Computer Science, pp. 317: 2004, 227-249.
  15. "Why Probability Does Not Capture the Logic of Scientific Justification", in Christopher Hitchcock, ed., Contemporary Debates in the Philosophy of Science, London: Blackwell, 2004.
  16. "Learning Theory and Epistemology",  in  Handbook of Epistemology, I. Niiniluoto, M. Sintonen, and J. Smolenski, eds.  Dordrecht: Kluwer, 2004.
  17. "The Logic of Success",  British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, special millennium issue, 51, 2001, 639-666.
  18. Reprinted in Philosophy of Science Today, P. Clark and K. Hawley eds., Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004.
  19. "Efficient Convergence Implies Ockham's Razor", Proceedings of the 2002 International Workshop on Computational Models of Scientific Reasoning and Applications, Las Vegas, USA, June 24-27, 2002.
  20. "A Close Shave with Realism: Ockham's Razor Derived from Efficient Convergence",  completed manuscript.
  21. "Naturalism Logicized", in  After Popper, Kuhn and Feyerabend: Current Issues in Scientific Method, R. Nola and H. Sankey, eds, 34 Dordrecht: Kluwer, 2000, pp. 177-210.
  22. "Iterated Belief Revision, Reliability, and Inductive Amnesia," Erkenntnis, 50, 1998 pp. 11-58.
  23. "The Learning Power of Iterated Belief Revision", in  Proceedings of the Seventh TARK Conference Itzhak Gilboa, ed., 1998, pp. 111-125.
  24. "Iterated Belief Revision, Reliability, and Inductive Amnesia," Erkenntnis, 50, 1998 pp. 11-58.
  25. (with O. Schulte and V. Hendricks) "Reliable Belief Revision", in  Logic and Scientfic Methods, M. L. Dalla Chiara, et al., eds.  Dordrecht: Kluwer, 1997.
  26. (with O. Schulte and C. Juhl) "Learning Theory and the Philosophy of Science", Philosophy of Science 64: 1997, pp. 245-267.
  27. (with O. Schulte) "Church's Thesis and Hume's Problem," in  Logic and Scientific Methods, M. L. Dalla Chiara, et al., eds. Dordrecht: Kluwer, 1997, pp. 383-398.
  28. The Logic of Reliable Inquiry, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
    [HTML file containing analytical table of contents only]
  29. (with O. Schulte) "The Computable Testability of Theories with Uncomputable Predictions",  Erkenntnis 43: 29-66, 1995, 29-66.  Reviewed in the Journal of Symbolic Logic.

Recent Presentations

2012

  1. (With Hanti Lin) "Ockham's Razors", CADILLAC, University of Copenhagen.
  2. (With Hanti Lin) "A Happy Marriage Between Propositional and Probabilistic Reasoning", Filosofiska Foereningen, Lund. We love the poster!
  3. "Learning Models for Modal Epistemic Logic or Invasion of the Epistemic Parasites!", Games, Interactive Rationality and Learning (GIRL), Lund.
  4. "Tutorial on Ockham's Razor'', Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, Munich. [mp4]
  5. (With Hanti Lin) "Doxastic Engineering'', Roundtable on Acceptance, Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU. [mp4]
  6. "An Erotetic Theory of Simplicity and its Relation to Truth'', Interrogative Models of Inquiry Workshop, Sorbonne, Paris.
  7. "Simplicity, Truth, and Ockham's Razor'', Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, Munich.
  8. "The Bayesian Miracle'', Workshop on Radical Uncertainty, Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU, Munich. [mp4].
  9. "Topological Epistemology'', Logic and Interactive Rationality three day seminar, ILLC, Amsterdam.
  10. (with Hanti Lin)"Uncertain Acceptance and Contextual Dependence on Questions'', LogicCiC Seminar Series, ILLC, University of Amsterdam.
  11. (with Hanti Lin) "Propositional Reasoning that Tracks Probabilistic Reasoning'', LogicCiC Seminar Series, ILLC, University of Amsterdam.
  12. (with Hanti Lin) "Propositional Reasoning that Tracks Probabilistic Reasoning'', University of Groeningen.
  13. "Simplicity, Truth, and Ockham's Razor'', Universityof Groeningen.

2011

  1. "An Erotetic Theory of Empirical Simplicity and its Connection with Truth", Beth/Vienna Circle Lecture: University of Amsterdam.
  2. "Science: the Topology of Inquiry". Two day tutorial. Culture Matters Lecture Series, The University of Lausanne, Fondation Suisse d'études.
  3. "An Erotetic Theory of Simplicity and its Connection with Truth". Department of Philosophy, University of Geneva.
  4. "Simplicity and its Connection with Empirical Truth", Workshop on Explanation, Causality, and Explanation, Heinrich Heine University, Duesseldorf.
  5. (with Hanti Lin) "A Happy Marriage Between Propositional and Probabilistic Reasoning", Workshop on Explanation, Causation, and Unification, Heinrich Heine University, Duesseldorf.
  6. "A Topological Theory of Simplicity and its Connection with Truth", PhilMath Intersem, Simplicity/Complexity of Proof, Sorbonne, Paris.
  7. "Simplicity, Truth, Zen", Department of Philsosophy, University of Kyoto.
  8. Epistemology Workshop, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
  9. "Inductive Knowledge: A Learning Theoretic Semantics for Modal Epistemic Logic".
  10. (with Hanti Lin) "Propositional Reasoning that Tracks Probabilistic Reasoning", Workwhop on Acceptance, CFE, Carnegie Mellon.

2010

  1. "Causal Conclusions that Flip Repeatedly and Their Justification'', Plenary Talk, 26th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Catalina island.
  2. "Simplicity and Truth'', Workshop on the Nature of Laws, Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics.
  3. "Simplicity, Truth, and Zen'', Keynote, Graduate Conference, University of Western Ontario.

Courses

Undergraduate

  • 80-105: Freshman Seminar on Mysticism
  • 80-120: Reflections on Science
  • 80-201: Epistemology
  • 80-202: Metaphysics
  • 80-210: Self-paced Introduction to Logic
  • 80-220: Philosophy of Science
  • 80-251: Ancient Philosophy
  • 80-252: Medieval Philosophy
  • 80-252: History of Modern Philosophy
  • 80-265: Philosophy of Religion
  • 80-310: Logic and Computability
  • 80-311: Logic and Artificial Intelligence
  • 80-311: Goedel and Undecidability
  • 80-312: Probability and Artificial Intelligence
  • 80-351: Kant
Graduate
  • 80-812: Seminar on Formal Learning Theory
  • 80-411/711: Computability and Learnibility
  • 80-411/711: Descriptive Set Theory
  • 80-518: Epistemology Seminar
  • 80-602: Proseminar

Fun


Mountain climbing
Scratch-built sailing models
Painting
Cooking
Travel