Probability and AI - Syllabus, Spring 2002

80-316 and 80-616

http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/ps7z/syll2002.html

 


Instructor: Peter Spirtes

Office: 135D BH

Telephone: x88460

Office Hours: T,Th 12:30-1:20


e-mail: ps7z@andrew.cmu.edu

 

Texts: An Introduction to Bayesian Networks by F. Jensen

various articles handed out in class

for graduate students: Causality by Judea Pearl

http://www.hugin.com/news/Demo_HDE.article

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/

 

Grades: 20% Quizzes

60% Homework Assignments

20% Final

 

1.      Introduction

Lecture 1

2.      Causation

Jensen 1.1.-1.2

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation Among Variables

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Indeterministic Causation

Lecture 2

3.      Causation

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation Causal graphs

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation Interventions

Lecture 3

4.      Approaches to Uncertainty

http://developer.hugin.com/Getting_Started/ Paradigms

5.      Probability I

Jensen, 1.3,

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat Probability - Probability Spaces, 1 5

Lecture 4

6.       Probability II

Jensen, 1.3,

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Probability - Distributions, 1 6

Homework

Answers

7.      Probability III

Jensen, 1.3,

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Probability Expected Values, 1 3, 5 6

8.      Probability IV

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Probability Probability Spaces, 6

Online Causal Course Association Independence and Association

Online Causal Course Association Conditional Independence

9.      Interpretations of probability

10.    Bayesian Networks

Jensen, 1.4.

http://developer.hugin.com/Getting_Started/ Bayesian Networks

11.    Causality and Probability

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation to Association Unconditional association

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation to Association Conditional

association

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Course Causation to Association d-

separation

12.    Constructing Bayesian Networks

Jensen, 2

http://developer.hugin.com/Getting_Started/ Tutorials Building a Bayesian

Network

Homework

13.    Updating

Jensen, 5.7

handout

Hugin exercises

14.    Manipulating and Predicting

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Interventions

15.    Parameter Estimation and Sampling Distributions

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Random Samples, sections 1-6, 9

16.    Parameter Estimation and Sampling Distributions

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Point Estimation, sections 1, 3-6

Homework

17.    Applications

http://www.research.microsoft.com/~heckerman/default.htm

18.    Other Approaches to Classification: Regression

handout

19.    Other Approaches to Classification

Notes

Homework 6

Notes for Homework 6

20.    Causal inference

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Association to Causation Problems

with Causal Discovery

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Association to Causation Confounding

21.    Constructing Bayes Networks Bayesian methods

http://www.research.microsoft.com/~heckerman/default.htm

22.    Constructing Bayes Networks: Constraint Based Methods

Handout 1 for Constraint Based Methods

Handout 2 for Constraint Based Methods

Handout 3 for Constraint Based Methods

Study Guide for Second Quiz

Homework 7

23.    Latent Variable Inference I

Handout for Latent Variables Methods

24.    Latent Variable Inference II