e-mail: ps7z@andrew.cmu.edu

Texts: An Introduction to Bayesian Networks by F. Jensen

various articles handed out in class

for graduate students: Causality by Judea Pearl

http://www.hugin.com/news/Demo_HDE.article

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/

Grades: 20% Quizzes

60% Homework Assignments

20% Final

1. Introduction

Lecture 1

2. Causation

Jensen 1.1.-1.2

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation Among Variables

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Indeterministic Causation

Lecture 2

3. Causation –

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ – Causation – Causal graphs

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ – Causation – Interventions

Lecture 3

4. Approaches to Uncertainty

http://developer.hugin.com/Getting_Started/ Paradigms

5. Probability I

Jensen, 1.3,

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat Probability - Probability Spaces, 1 – 5

Lecture 4

6. Probability II

Jensen, 1.3,

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Probability - Distributions, 1 – 6

Homework

Answers

7. Probability III

Jensen, 1.3,

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Probability – Expected Values, 1 – 3, 5 – 6

8. Probability IV –

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Probability – Probability Spaces, 6

Online Causal Course – Association – Independence and Association

Online Causal Course – Association – Conditional Independence

9. Interpretations of probability

10. Bayesian Networks –

Jensen, 1.4.

http://developer.hugin.com/Getting_Started/ Bayesian Networks

11. Causality and Probability

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation to Association – Unconditional association

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Causation to Association – Conditional

association

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Course – Causation to Association – d-

separation

12. Constructing Bayesian Networks

Jensen, 2

http://developer.hugin.com/Getting_Started/ Tutorials – Building a Bayesian

Network

Homework

13. Updating

Jensen, 5.7

handout

Hugin exercises

14. Manipulating and Predicting

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Interventions

15. Parameter Estimation and Sampling Distributions

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Random Samples, sections 1-6, 9

16. Parameter Estimation and Sampling Distributions

http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/ Point Estimation, sections 1, 3-6

Homework

17. Applications

http://www.research.microsoft.com/~heckerman/default.htm

18. Other Approaches to Classification: Regression

handout

19. Other Approaches to Classification

Notes

Homework 6

Notes for Homework 6

20. Causal inference

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Association to Causation – Problems

with Causal Discovery

http://www.phil.cmu.edu/courses/csr/ Association to Causation – Confounding

21. Constructing Bayes Networks – Bayesian methods

http://www.research.microsoft.com/~heckerman/default.htm

22. Constructing Bayes Networks: Constraint Based Methods

Handout 1 for Constraint Based Methods

Handout 2 for Constraint Based Methods

Handout 3 for Constraint Based Methods

Study Guide for Second Quiz

Homework 7

23. Latent Variable Inference I

Handout for Latent Variables Methods

24. Latent Variable Inference II