The SAS System 1 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 state gtop5 gadj AL 0 0 AR 0 1 AZ 0 0 CA 0 0 CO 0 1 CT 0 0 DE 0 0 FL 0 0 GA 0 0 IA 0 0 ID 0 1 IL 0 0 IN 0 0 KS 0 1 KY 0 0 LA 1 0 MA 0 0 MD 0 0 ME 0 0 MI 0 0 MN 0 0 MO 0 1 MS 0 1 MT 0 1 NC 0 0 ND 0 0 NE 0 1 NH 0 0 NJ 0 0 NM 1 0 NV 0 0 NY 0 0 OH 0 0 OK 1 0 OR 0 0 PA 0 0 RI 0 0 SC 0 0 SD 0 1 TN 0 0 TX 1 0 UT 0 1 VA 0 0 VT 0 0 WA 0 0 WI 0 0 WV 0 0 WY 1 0 The SAS System 2 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The MEANS Procedure Variable N Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ctop5 48 0.1041667 0.3087093 0 1.0000000 cadj 48 0.3541667 0.4833211 0 1.0000000 gtop5 48 0.1041667 0.3087093 0 1.0000000 gadj 48 0.2083333 0.4104141 0 1.0000000 ln_coalp 48 0.3847975 0.2908235 -0.3147107 1.2864740 ln_coalq 48 5.1926172 2.0020005 -2.6592600 7.2670508 ln_gasp 48 1.4885999 0.2066607 0.9162907 1.9444806 ln_gasq 48 5.3268848 1.3117949 1.6174061 8.2547915 ln_cdd 48 6.8480940 0.7125480 5.2470241 8.3423635 ln_hdd 48 8.3733136 0.6734562 5.2983174 9.1014180 ln_Y 48 10.2635529 0.1606359 9.9123482 10.6165599 ln_pop 48 8.0972992 0.9962410 6.1312265 10.3215398 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The SAS System 3 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The CORR Procedure 12 Variables: ctop5 cadj gtop5 gadj ln_coalp ln_coalq ln_gasp ln_gasq ln_cdd ln_hdd ln_Y ln_pop Covariance Matrix, DF = 47 ctop5 cadj gtop5 gadj ctop5 0.095301418 -0.037677305 0.010195035 -0.022163121 cadj -0.037677305 0.233599291 -0.037677305 0.073581560 gtop5 0.010195035 -0.037677305 0.095301418 -0.022163121 gadj -0.022163121 0.073581560 -0.022163121 0.168439716 ln_coalp -0.013521341 -0.043465381 -0.016127061 -0.043202287 ln_coalq 0.162757713 0.097559679 0.090309701 -0.052070710 ln_gasp 0.001410360 0.007657464 -0.035639690 -0.022403605 ln_gasq 0.041180673 -0.041014124 0.117620474 -0.080076078 ln_cdd -0.018343404 0.002139858 0.038606814 0.021945657 ln_hdd 0.025198920 0.079354441 -0.026796298 0.040549353 ln_Y -0.005078029 0.002173111 -0.011319024 -0.021100589 ln_pop 0.002205625 -0.032341246 -0.017681972 -0.123365636 Covariance Matrix, DF = 47 ln_coalp ln_coalq ln_gasp ln_gasq ctop5 -0.013521341 0.162757713 0.001410360 0.041180673 cadj -0.043465381 0.097559679 0.007657464 -0.041014124 gtop5 -0.016127061 0.090309701 -0.035639690 0.117620474 gadj -0.043202287 -0.052070710 -0.022403605 -0.080076078 ln_coalp 0.084578282 -0.349405202 0.019655677 -0.069918401 ln_coalq -0.349405202 4.008005883 -0.111229909 1.563767949 ln_gasp 0.019655677 -0.111229909 0.042708644 -0.094868767 ln_gasq -0.069918401 1.563767949 -0.094868767 1.720805903 ln_cdd 0.000034626 0.582397628 -0.060216885 0.402186075 ln_hdd -0.035851446 -0.315494846 0.057529669 -0.312859928 ln_Y 0.010790110 -0.071543882 0.019106130 -0.004570066 ln_pop 0.027184922 0.984742924 0.003660728 1.077264681 Covariance Matrix, DF = 47 ln_cdd ln_hdd ln_Y ln_pop ctop5 -0.018343404 0.025198920 -0.005078029 0.002205625 cadj 0.002139858 0.079354441 0.002173111 -0.032341246 gtop5 0.038606814 -0.026796298 -0.011319024 -0.017681972 gadj 0.021945657 0.040549353 -0.021100589 -0.123365636 ln_coalp 0.000034626 -0.035851446 0.010790110 0.027184922 ln_coalq 0.582397628 -0.315494846 -0.071543882 0.984742924 ln_gasp -0.060216885 0.057529669 0.019106130 0.003660728 ln_gasq 0.402186075 -0.312859928 -0.004570066 1.077264681 ln_cdd 0.507724626 -0.347932367 -0.047894830 0.248832270 ln_hdd -0.347932367 0.453543228 0.029144603 -0.288680898 ln_Y -0.047894830 0.029144603 0.025803879 0.030675650 ln_pop 0.248832270 -0.288680898 0.030675650 0.992496221 The SAS System 4 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The CORR Procedure Simple Statistics Variable N Mean Std Dev Sum Minimum Maximum ctop5 48 0.10417 0.30871 5.00000 0 1.00000 cadj 48 0.35417 0.48332 17.00000 0 1.00000 gtop5 48 0.10417 0.30871 5.00000 0 1.00000 gadj 48 0.20833 0.41041 10.00000 0 1.00000 ln_coalp 48 0.38480 0.29082 18.47028 -0.31471 1.28647 ln_coalq 48 5.19262 2.00200 249.24563 -2.65926 7.26705 ln_gasp 48 1.48860 0.20666 71.45280 0.91629 1.94448 ln_gasq 48 5.32688 1.31179 255.69047 1.61741 8.25479 ln_cdd 48 6.84809 0.71255 328.70851 5.24702 8.34236 ln_hdd 48 8.37331 0.67346 401.91905 5.29832 9.10142 ln_Y 48 10.26355 0.16064 492.65054 9.91235 10.61656 ln_pop 48 8.09730 0.99624 388.67036 6.13123 10.32154 Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 48 Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0 ctop5 cadj gtop5 gadj ln_coalp ln_coalq ctop5 1.00000 -0.25252 0.10698 -0.17493 -0.15061 0.26335 0.0833 0.4692 0.2344 0.3069 0.0705 cadj -0.25252 1.00000 -0.25252 0.37095 -0.30923 0.10083 0.0833 0.0833 0.0094 0.0325 0.4953 gtop5 0.10698 -0.25252 1.00000 -0.17493 -0.17963 0.14612 0.4692 0.0833 0.2344 0.2218 0.3217 gadj -0.17493 0.37095 -0.17493 1.00000 -0.36196 -0.06337 0.2344 0.0094 0.2344 0.0115 0.6687 Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 48 Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0 ln_gasp ln_gasq ln_cdd ln_hdd ln_Y ln_pop ctop5 0.02211 0.10169 -0.08339 0.12121 -0.10240 0.00717 0.8814 0.4916 0.5731 0.4119 0.4886 0.9614 cadj 0.07666 -0.06469 0.00621 0.24380 0.02799 -0.06717 0.6045 0.6622 0.9666 0.0950 0.8502 0.6501 gtop5 -0.55863 0.29045 0.17551 -0.12889 -0.22825 -0.05749 <.0001 0.0452 0.2328 0.3826 0.1187 0.6979 gadj -0.26414 -0.14874 0.07504 0.14671 -0.32006 -0.30172 0.0697 0.3130 0.6122 0.3197 0.0266 0.0371 The SAS System 5 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The CORR Procedure Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 48 Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0 ctop5 cadj gtop5 gadj ln_coalp ln_coalq ln_coalp -0.15061 -0.30923 -0.17963 -0.36196 1.00000 -0.60012 0.3069 0.0325 0.2218 0.0115 <.0001 ln_coalq 0.26335 0.10083 0.14612 -0.06337 -0.60012 1.00000 0.0705 0.4953 0.3217 0.6687 <.0001 ln_gasp 0.02211 0.07666 -0.55863 -0.26414 0.32704 -0.26884 0.8814 0.6045 <.0001 0.0697 0.0233 0.0646 ln_gasq 0.10169 -0.06469 0.29045 -0.14874 -0.18327 0.59545 0.4916 0.6622 0.0452 0.3130 0.2124 <.0001 ln_cdd -0.08339 0.00621 0.17551 0.07504 0.00017 0.40826 0.5731 0.9666 0.2328 0.6122 0.9991 0.0040 ln_hdd 0.12121 0.24380 -0.12889 0.14671 -0.18305 -0.23400 0.4119 0.0950 0.3826 0.3197 0.2130 0.1094 ln_Y -0.10240 0.02799 -0.22825 -0.32006 0.23097 -0.22247 0.4886 0.8502 0.1187 0.0266 0.1142 0.1286 ln_pop 0.00717 -0.06717 -0.05749 -0.30172 0.09383 0.49374 0.9614 0.6501 0.6979 0.0371 0.5259 0.0004 Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 48 Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0 ln_gasp ln_gasq ln_cdd ln_hdd ln_Y ln_pop ln_coalp 0.32704 -0.18327 0.00017 -0.18305 0.23097 0.09383 0.0233 0.2124 0.9991 0.2130 0.1142 0.5259 ln_coalq -0.26884 0.59545 0.40826 -0.23400 -0.22247 0.49374 0.0646 <.0001 0.0040 0.1094 0.1286 0.0004 ln_gasp 1.00000 -0.34994 -0.40893 0.41336 0.57554 0.01778 0.0148 0.0039 0.0035 <.0001 0.9045 ln_gasq -0.34994 1.00000 0.43028 -0.35414 -0.02169 0.82431 0.0148 0.0023 0.0135 0.8837 <.0001 ln_cdd -0.40893 0.43028 1.00000 -0.72506 -0.41844 0.35053 0.0039 0.0023 <.0001 0.0031 0.0146 ln_hdd 0.41336 -0.35414 -0.72506 1.00000 0.26941 -0.43027 0.0035 0.0135 <.0001 0.0641 0.0023 ln_Y 0.57554 -0.02169 -0.41844 0.26941 1.00000 0.19168 <.0001 0.8837 0.0031 0.0641 0.1918 The SAS System 6 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The CORR Procedure Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 48 Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0 ln_gasp ln_gasq ln_cdd ln_hdd ln_Y ln_pop ln_pop 0.01778 0.82431 0.35053 -0.43027 0.19168 1.00000 0.9045 <.0001 0.0146 0.0023 0.1918 Demand curve by OLS 7 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: ln_gasp Number of Observations Read 48 Number of Observations Used 48 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 1 0.24582 0.24582 6.42 0.0148 Error 46 1.76149 0.03829 Corrected Total 47 2.00731 Root MSE 0.19569 R-Square 0.1225 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.1034 Coeff Var 13.14568 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.78227 0.11930 14.94 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.05513 0.02176 -2.53 0.0148 Demand curve by OLS 8 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL2 Dependent Variable: ln_gasp Number of Observations Read 48 Number of Observations Used 48 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.40624 0.28125 19.65 <.0001 Error 42 0.60106 0.01431 Corrected Total 47 2.00731 Root MSE 0.11963 R-Square 0.7006 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.6649 Coeff Var 8.03632 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -5.22498 1.46980 -3.55 0.0010 ln_gasq 1 -0.16748 0.02604 -6.43 <.0001 ln_pop 1 0.20508 0.03669 5.59 <.0001 ln_Y 1 0.40028 0.13481 2.97 0.0049 ln_cdd 1 0.06514 0.04001 1.63 0.1110 ln_hdd 1 0.16610 0.04080 4.07 0.0002 Supply curve by OLS 9 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: ln_gasp Number of Observations Read 48 Number of Observations Used 48 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 1 0.24582 0.24582 6.42 0.0148 Error 46 1.76149 0.03829 Corrected Total 47 2.00731 Root MSE 0.19569 R-Square 0.1225 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.1034 Coeff Var 13.14568 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.78227 0.11930 14.94 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.05513 0.02176 -2.53 0.0148 Supply curve by OLS 10 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL2 Dependent Variable: ln_gasp Number of Observations Read 48 Number of Observations Used 48 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 1.00901 0.33634 14.82 <.0001 Error 44 0.99830 0.02269 Corrected Total 47 2.00731 Root MSE 0.15063 R-Square 0.5027 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.4688 Coeff Var 10.11873 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.77695 0.09644 18.43 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.03900 0.01760 -2.22 0.0319 gtop5 1 -0.37247 0.07511 -4.96 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.20056 0.05467 -3.67 0.0007 Reduced form by OLS 11 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: ln_gasp Number of Observations Read 48 Number of Observations Used 48 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 1.33510 0.22252 13.57 <.0001 Error 41 0.67220 0.01640 Corrected Total 47 2.00731 Root MSE 0.12804 R-Square 0.6651 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.6161 Coeff Var 8.60163 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -3.74564 1.61480 -2.32 0.0254 gtop5 1 -0.35156 0.06544 -5.37 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.17193 0.05366 -3.20 0.0026 ln_Y 1 0.40106 0.14656 2.74 0.0091 ln_pop 1 -0.01185 0.02333 -0.51 0.6144 ln_cdd 1 0.04132 0.04250 0.97 0.3367 ln_hdd 1 0.11983 0.04321 2.77 0.0083 Reduced form by OLS 12 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL2 Dependent Variable: ln_gasq Number of Observations Read 48 Number of Observations Used 48 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 68.29868 11.38311 37.10 <.0001 Error 41 12.57920 0.30681 Corrected Total 47 80.87788 Root MSE 0.55390 R-Square 0.8445 Dependent Mean 5.32688 Adj R-Sq 0.8217 Coeff Var 10.39827 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -4.03058 6.98545 -0.58 0.5671 gtop5 1 1.49021 0.28309 5.26 <.0001 gadj 1 0.41929 0.23211 1.81 0.0782 ln_Y 1 -0.57265 0.63400 -0.90 0.3717 ln_pop 1 1.22611 0.10094 12.15 <.0001 ln_cdd 1 0.26929 0.18386 1.46 0.1506 ln_hdd 1 0.38455 0.18691 2.06 0.0460 Demand curve by IV 13 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEMAND Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.320966 0.264193 14.32 <.0001 Error 42 0.774997 0.018452 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.13584 R-Square 0.63024 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.58622 Coeff Var 9.12530 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -4.03803 1.696313 -2.38 0.0219 ln_gasq 1 -0.23790 0.045401 -5.24 <.0001 ln_Y 1 0.327619 0.158126 2.07 0.0445 ln_pop 1 0.273276 0.055287 4.94 <.0001 ln_cdd 1 0.042650 0.044669 0.95 0.3451 ln_hdd 1 0.110650 0.044621 2.48 0.0172 Supply curve by IV 14 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SUPPLY Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 0.928126 0.309375 13.37 <.0001 Error 44 1.018389 0.023145 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.15214 R-Square 0.47681 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.44114 Coeff Var 10.22004 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.689620 0.106345 15.89 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.02244 0.019531 -1.15 0.2567 gtop5 1 -0.39167 0.076439 -5.12 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.19521 0.055278 -3.53 0.0010 Demand and Supply curves by IV 15 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SUPPLY Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 0.928126 0.309375 13.37 <.0001 Error 44 1.018389 0.023145 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.15214 R-Square 0.47681 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.44114 Coeff Var 10.22004 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.689620 0.106345 15.89 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.02244 0.019531 -1.15 0.2567 gtop5 1 -0.39167 0.076439 -5.12 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.19521 0.055278 -3.53 0.0010 Demand and Supply curves by IV 16 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEMAND Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.301981 0.260396 15.41 <.0001 Error 42 0.709556 0.016894 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.12998 R-Square 0.64726 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.60526 Coeff Var 8.73154 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -5.02876 1.599715 -3.14 0.0031 ln_gasq 1 -0.23918 0.044516 -5.37 <.0001 ln_Y 1 0.308315 0.152962 2.02 0.0503 ln_pop 1 0.287540 0.056140 5.12 <.0001 ln_cdd 1 0.094300 0.045664 2.07 0.0451 ln_hdd 1 0.197406 0.046801 4.22 0.0001 Demand and Supply curves by IV 17 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Three-Stage Least Squares Estimation Cross Model Covariance SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 0.023145 0.007980 DEMAND 0.007980 0.016894 Cross Model Correlation SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 1.00000 0.40354 DEMAND 0.40354 1.00000 Cross Model Inverse Correlation SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 1.19452 -0.48204 DEMAND -0.48204 1.19452 Cross Model Inverse Covariance SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 51.6100 -24.3773 DEMAND -24.3773 70.7062 System Weighted MSE 0.8055 Degrees of freedom 86 System Weighted R-Square 0.5309 Model SUPPLY Dependent Variable ln_gasp Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.671506 0.105654 15.82 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.01996 0.019461 -1.03 0.3105 gtop5 1 -0.40253 0.076093 -5.29 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.16620 0.051767 -3.21 0.0025 Demand and Supply curves by IV 18 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Three-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEMAND Dependent Variable ln_gasp Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -3.17713 1.466990 -2.17 0.0361 ln_gasq 1 -0.25754 0.044063 -5.84 <.0001 ln_Y 1 0.159275 0.140882 1.13 0.2647 ln_pop 1 0.305123 0.055546 5.49 <.0001 ln_cdd 1 0.084230 0.042198 2.00 0.0524 ln_hdd 1 0.161874 0.043592 3.71 0.0006 Demand curve including coal price by IV 19 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEMAND Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 1.291033 0.215172 12.88 <.0001 Error 41 0.684806 0.016703 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.12924 R-Square 0.65341 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.60269 Coeff Var 8.68188 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -4.62799 1.661991 -2.78 0.0081 ln_gasq 1 -0.19914 0.054514 -3.65 0.0007 ln_coalp 1 0.160537 0.180168 0.89 0.3781 ln_Y 1 0.272460 0.161524 1.69 0.0992 ln_pop 1 0.245644 0.064213 3.83 0.0004 ln_cdd 1 0.086608 0.045422 1.91 0.0636 ln_hdd 1 0.207451 0.049218 4.21 0.0001 Demand and suppluy curves including coal price by IV 20 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SUPPLY Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 0.927458 0.309153 13.35 <.0001 Error 44 1.019148 0.023162 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.15219 R-Square 0.47645 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.44075 Coeff Var 10.22385 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.687986 0.106100 15.91 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.02213 0.019482 -1.14 0.2621 gtop5 1 -0.39203 0.076448 -5.13 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.19511 0.055297 -3.53 0.0010 Demand and suppluy curves including coal price by IV 21 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEMAND Dependent Variable ln_gasp Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 1.291033 0.215172 12.88 <.0001 Error 41 0.684806 0.016703 Corrected Total 47 2.007306 Root MSE 0.12924 R-Square 0.65341 Dependent Mean 1.48860 Adj R-Sq 0.60269 Coeff Var 8.68188 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -4.62799 1.661991 -2.78 0.0081 ln_gasq 1 -0.19914 0.054514 -3.65 0.0007 ln_coalp 1 0.160537 0.180168 0.89 0.3781 ln_Y 1 0.272460 0.161524 1.69 0.0992 ln_pop 1 0.245644 0.064213 3.83 0.0004 ln_cdd 1 0.086608 0.045422 1.91 0.0636 ln_hdd 1 0.207451 0.049218 4.21 0.0001 Demand and suppluy curves including coal price by IV 22 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Three-Stage Least Squares Estimation Cross Model Covariance SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 0.023162 0.008084 DEMAND 0.008084 0.016703 Cross Model Correlation SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 1.00000 0.41098 DEMAND 0.41098 1.00000 Cross Model Inverse Correlation SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 1.20323 -0.49450 DEMAND -0.49450 1.20323 Cross Model Inverse Covariance SUPPLY DEMAND SUPPLY 51.9475 -25.1412 DEMAND -25.1412 72.0386 System Weighted MSE 0.8299 Degrees of freedom 85 System Weighted R-Square 0.5232 Model SUPPLY Dependent Variable ln_gasp Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.678243 0.105705 15.88 <.0001 ln_gasq 1 -0.02120 0.019443 -1.09 0.2816 gtop5 1 -0.38912 0.076107 -5.11 <.0001 gadj 1 -0.17375 0.053088 -3.27 0.0021 Demand and suppluy curves including coal price by IV 23 09:50 Thursday, March 3, 2005 The SYSLIN Procedure Three-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEMAND Dependent Variable ln_gasp Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -2.82707 1.519363 -1.86 0.0700 ln_gasq 1 -0.22013 0.053479 -4.12 0.0002 ln_coalp 1 0.134138 0.170290 0.79 0.4354 ln_Y 1 0.133698 0.147456 0.91 0.3699 ln_pop 1 0.265132 0.063195 4.20 0.0001 ln_cdd 1 0.075591 0.041924 1.80 0.0787 ln_hdd 1 0.167190 0.045274 3.69 0.0006